Investing Strategy Archives

January’s 5.6% gain makes the rest of the year looks bright according to the January indicator. 

The logic of the January indicator, according to aficionados, is as follows: 

January Indicator

And the payoff for the rest of the year appears rich:

January Indicator

 

But can high odds of a rich payoff result from such a simple forecasting method?

Yes, according to a Wall Street technician who was quoted recently in Barron’s, … the historical ‘facts and figures’ are what they are. The data is the data.

Financial Crisis 10 Years after: Lessons to Remember

Early October 2007 marks the 10-year anniversary of the S&P 500 reaching a high point. It then lost more than half its value during the global financial crisis. In the coming weeks, the financial news media is likely to examine how today’s environment compares to the period leading up to the 2008 crisis. It is difficult to draw useful conclusions based on observations and opinions: market forecasters focusing on the short-term will “fill your ear but will never consistently and systematically fill your wallet.”

Financial markets have a habit of behaving unpredictably in the short run. There are, however, important lessons to take away:

The emotions of market timing

Today, stock prices are fairly high while growth is widely expected to be slow. Should equity owners sell? I did, prior to the crash of 2008, and I now regret my decision every time the market hits a new high. I’m also afraid to get back in. It’s difficult to time the market, even if behavioral finance teaches us that the price is not always right.– Laurence B. Siegel, The Inventor of Behavioral Finance Looks Back (A book review of Richard Thaler’s Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioural Economics).

Genius at Work

Warren Buffett’s annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter provides insight into investment strategy worthy of consideration by all investors. This year’s letter, celebrating the 50th anniversary of Berkshire Hathaway under Mr. Buffett’s management, is no different. The following six insights may prove especially valuable to the individual/independent investor.

1. Stocks offer better long-term inflation protection than interest-bearing securities.

 Page 1 of 3  1  2  3 »